The Price of a Single Human Wave
The tactic that made February the deadliest month for Russian soldiers in Ukraine
The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade — which defended the Avdiivka Coking Plant shown below just a few weeks ago — is now attempting, alongside the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade and others, to contain the fallout from the fall of Avdiivka. The most tactically important ground on the steppelands — namely the Avdiivka Coking Plant — is proving an excellent nest for artillery observers and staging ground for Russian assaults, which have recently captured Lastochkyne and gained a brief foothold in Berdychi.
Yet the price paid for these advances has been enormous.
Let’s look at a single Russian assault conducted on February 29 that was repelled recorded by the 47th Mech. The assault captured in this video illustrates the tremendous cost Russia is enduring to gain ground along the frontline.
With credit to CyberBoroshno for geolocating this footage:
The assault occurred near Berdychi, which has been under constant attack this week, unfolding near the cemetary at the southern edge of the town. It is a perfect example of a “banzai attack,” as Ukrainian soldiers have started calling them. The entire tactic consists of approximately a dozen soldiers riding into battle atop an armored vehicle.
The video begins with a drone attack on the Russian infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), suggesting that the Ukrainians spotted this assault group approaching.
The drone fails to stop the vehicle, which continues another couple hundred feet before stopping to let the troops dismount. One or two dead and wounded from the drone strike remain atop the vehicle as the infantry leap off and rush towards the gate of a nearby house.
The Russian IFV promptly turns around and retreats, heading back towards Stepove before turning south towards Avdiivka. It manages a short distance before another Ukrainian drone intercepts it, destroying the vehicle.
While the Russian IFV tries to make its escape, a US-made Bradley IFV — operated by the 47th Mech, one of the Western-trained and -equipped brigades (including with US-made Abrams tanks) — blithely approaches from the west. The Bradley sidles up next to a previously destroyed Russian IFV, and promptly begins pumping 25mm high-explosive rounds from its large US-made autocannon at close range into the dozen Russian soldiers. The video ends with Ukrainians checking the bodies of the Russian dead.
In the course of less than 10 minutes, the 47th destroyed the IFV and ~12-15 Russian soldiers comprising a banzai attack.
This action was one of 82 combat engagements along the entire frontline recorded by the Ukrainians on February 29. If this attack can be considered representative of the average combat engagement fought that day, that total daily casualties would be between 984-1,230.
Ukraine reported 1,150 Russian casualties on February 29.
Importantly, similar assaults continued the next day as shown in footage of two banzai attacks posted on March 1 and another the following day.
Earlier this week, similar assaults conducted near Bakhmut into Ivaniske, Klischshivka, and Bohdanivka left Russian combat units so denuded of infantry and IFVs that Russian attacks have lulled as commanders have run out of warm bodies to sacrifice. Extrapolating the range above equates to 360,000-450,000 permanent casualties — dead or too badly wounded to return to combat — per year.
The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense are leaning into attritional tactics to pressure the Ukrainians in every sector of the frontline. The average daily Russian losses — as measured by Ukraine — peaked this last week. Though the numbers are likely not exact, the methodology has remained consistent and provides a useful measure of the rate of Russian casualties.
On March 3, the Ministry of Defense of the Untied Kingdoms posted this chart as part of their daily intelligence update:
The last four months have been the bloodiest of the war thus far. Avdiivka fell on February 17, yet on average more Russians were killed each day last month than in any since the full Russian invasion.
Thieves and murderers can’t learn the easy way. This is the smaller part of why it is tragic. Ah well, more cargo 200, cargo 300, and zinc coffins! YGWYFD.